This may be how Biden beats Trump
© Steven Boykey Sidley
(image: Stablediffusion.ai, prompted by author)
Like many South Africans I have watched the return of Trump with something between disbelief and horror. Given that previous US politicians (all the way up to and including presidents) have seen their careers brutally truncated by relatively minor indiscretions, such as presidential contender Gary Hart whose future was killed in 1987 when a paparazzi took a photo of him on a yacht with a bikini clad young woman, the second coming of Trump seems to be straight out of a zombie movie. Is there no stake-through-the-heart that will put an end to this guy?
Apparently not. The majority of the GOP love him. Yeah, he has a loose tongue, they admit, but he will do God’s work in throwing communists, Muslims, immigrants, journalists, perverts and assorted Democrats into jail. God works in strange ways, they declare, it is not for them to question his methods.
OK, then. Far be it from me to try and unpack how we got from Obama to this, but perhaps the right had a collective epiphany fueled by social media algorithms and conspiracy theories. It’s all a little bewildering, not helped at all by the tone-deaf silliness of identitarians and annoyingly sanctimonious ‘social justice warriors’ on the other side, whose comeuppance would not be unwelcome.
But Trump? Again? Not some moderate conservative (who would be fine with me), but a bloated, ignorant, lying, posturing wannabe dictator? Surely not?
The primaries are upon us. Trump will romp home as he did in Iowa this week, gloating and cackling all the way. And Biden, whose presidency has been pretty competent, perhaps even better than that (how this administration managed to engineer a soft landing from a predicted killer recession will be marvelled at by economists for decades), will continue to try and get things done in the midst of a fractious congress.
But Biden is refusing to step aside, even in the face of terrible polls and low confidence ratings, which affirms the personality warping effects of ego and power and rankles this correspondent no end. Go away Biden, for God’s sake, you already won your place in history.
It’s not going to happen. It will be Biden vs Trump. Again. Unless one of them drops dead from some geriatric malady. Not that I wish for that. I promise. That would be simply immoral, right?
Which brings me to a recent poll which brought me up short and cracked some light in my dark vision of the near-term future of the US. It was reported in The Hill, here. A full 43% of Nikki Haley supporters among the registered GOP voters in Iowa would rather support Biden than Trump.
What? GOP voters choosing Biden over Trump? Well, yes, at least those who had hopes for a Trump alternative — one who is unlikely now to suddenly ride in and win the primaries. These people, to be sure, are a small percentage of GOP voters. But it is likely that a small percentage will separate Trump and Biden when the race tightens (as it always does), and those few percent of GOP voters who cannot possibly imagine another Trump presidency might just push Biden through. A few percent is all it will take.
How can this be?
When I lived in the US some time back, way before all of this nastiness, I bumped up against GOP supporters from time to time. Worked with a few, made friends with a few. They were unfailingly nice, hardworking, generous people. They just held different views to me on religion, abortion, immigration, affirmative action. They weren’t going to change their views and I was not going to change mine and, after our polite disagreements, we simply got on with our friendships. They voted Republican, I voted Democrat, we went to lunch and talked about other stuff.
This group of people are still there, they still vote GOP, but Trump represents everything that they hate — dishonesty and venality. These Republican voters will not only eschew the Trump vote, they will actively vote against him. They do not buy the ‘ruffian doing God’s work’ argument. They are John McCain Republicans, Mitt Romney Republicans, Bush Republicans.
I have always liked these people, notwithstanding my disagreements with them. They are worthy opponents in the field of politics. They and the moderate Democrats arguing for the other side were the backbone of the two party system. Until Trump. Marjorie Taylor Green. Gaetz. Tlaib. AOC. Fox. MSN. (A pox on all their houses.)
These precious few Republicans might well change the trajectory of the election and recover the soul of the lost Republic.
Steven Boykey Sidley is a professor of practice at JBS, University of Johannesburg. His new book It’s Mine: How the Crypto Industry is Redefining Ownership is published by Maverick451 in SA and Legend Times Group in UK/EU, available now. First printed in Daly Maverick
Originally published at https://stevenboykeysidley.substack.com.